August STAT with July’s Data
COMMENTARY by Paridhi Saboo
July 2026 STAT: A Closer Look at Above-List Price Sales
July single-family home sales improved 3% from last year, but the list-price outcome data shows why agents should be careful calling this a seller recovery. The market has more activity, yet most closings are still happening below the seller’s original expectation.
Mortgage rates remain in the high 6% range, which keeps monthly payments elevated and limits how far buyers can stretch. At the same time, ARMLS has been reporting improving contract activity, lower year-over-year inventory and a slower pace of price declines. That combination creates a market that is better than last year, but still sensitive to price.
The 2021 comparison shows how different today’s conditions are. In July 2021, 63% of single-family homes sold over original list price because the market had the opposite conditions: very low rates, extremely limited inventory and buyers competing aggressively.
July 2026 list-to-sold price:
● 75% sold below original list price, almost unchanged from 76% in 2025.
● 12% sold above original list price, with a median close price of $448,990.
● About 40% of above-list sales were under $400,000, showing competition is still most visible in attainable price ranges.
● Above-list closings were most concentrated in Phoenix, followed by San Tan Valley, Surprise and Mesa.
● 14% sold at list, showing that accurate pricing can still hold when the property matches buyer expectations.
Takeaway: For listing agents, this is a strong pricing conversation starter. Seller motivation and pricing accuracy matter more than optimism. A listing that starts too high is likely to need a reduction before buyers respond. For buyer agents, the below list trend creates room to negotiate, but the under $400K segment may still require speed, clean terms and realistic expectations.
To watch the Stat Commentary, check it out on ARMLS’s Facebook page.
